Skip to main content

Exceptional harms

California was pursuing a new transit oriented development bill, SB50. It morphed into a general housing bill, before being killed by a powerful Senator. His arguments, shared by other LA residents, was that they didn't want local control taken away.

On the surface, that sounds reasonable, who doesn't like more direct democratic processes? But local zoning has failed to address the problems the bill targets, and it is predictable that it will continue to fail, so long as political engagement maintains its current form. In many places, city-by-city control could work, but California is such a jigsaw of localities that each city has incentives to keep following business as usual, which means, zoning restrictions to prop up property values, which inevitably lead to housing shortages and unsustainable costs for anyone who isn't getting the land value windfall.

Even those getting the windfall are trapped into non-optimal decisions by housing immobility. That immobility has been exacerbated property tax freezes and rent control, more popular, but misguided, attempts to fix housing affordability. Those policies are short term fixes that only benefit those currently in place, while creating long term problems and extra burdens for any new residents or anyone who makes a small move.

Fixing zoning at a state level, in order to open up more infill development with good access to jobs and transit had some promise. The hope was that while individuals might vote against this when it's in their backyard, they'd accept it as an overall social program. But as the bill's history shows, political support here is hard to come by too. The ethos of localism is too deeply ingrained to admit to it's own harms.

Even before the shelving, the bill was forced to create many exemptions. A study by Urban Footprot helps to get a grasp of how these alter the potential areas of impact. It's still a bit hard to understand, but what I see is that the "sensitive areas" exception has a huge impact on the transit oriented part of the bill. That is especially worrisome. Why? Because the groups most impacted by the housing shortage and those represented by the sensitive areas are generally similar. If these communities start out as conceiving of denser development as a problem, rather than as a part of the solution it's hard to imagine political support emerging overall.



There's a lot of "great" talk about aspirations and commitment to the problem, but when it comes to laying out a plan, everyone wants an exception. I'm a bit skeptical that the local customization is all that useful or necessary. I'm even more skeptical that it wouldn't be abused. But politics being what it is, perhaps the best way out would be the suggestion of Redwood City Councilwoman Shelly Masur, to give communities a chance to create their own plan, but have policies that take effect if they haven't achieved goals.

To bring this back to my home turf, Chicago doesn't have the statewide problem California does. For the most part housing in downstate Illinois doesn't affect Chicago. Even suburbs are somewhat isolated in effect to Chicago itself. But what Chicago does have is an extreme Aldermanic preference where city council generally won't do much city wide. The exception to this has generally been Chicago's mayors who often overrule the city council.

There's a lot of problems to that system, but it's worth noting it as the reality when pursuing any change in Chicago.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

How to create a resilient Oil & Gas industry

Use Less As part of the current crisis, oil usage is down, and storage around the world is filling up, to the point that oil has traded at negative prices.  As a reaction, many Republican lawmakers want to bailout the oil industry, by providing free access to storage or no-collateral loans.  While it would make sense to ensure oil doesn't get dumped in the ocean, the right way to do that is by producing less oil. These proposals from the Republicans undermine the motivation for the industry to do so.  Workers are important, but they have the same access to unemployment as the other 25 million Americans who are out of work. What this crisis should illustrate is something that has been illustrated many times before, the oil industry is a fragile thing.  In the past this fragility has been demonstrated by massive spikes in prices and fears of shortage, in this case it's the inverse.  Why the fragility?  The simplest explanation is, we use too much....

Commit to Long Term Testing

Expanding testing is very important now.  It's also clearly an area we were unprepared.  We should commit to having testing capacity long term, to both provide more certainty to anyone expanding testing capacity today, and to be prepared in the future. I had some thoughts about how this testing would be best structured.  It's not possible to test for an contagious disease you're not aware of, but much of the infrastructure for doing so can already be in place, ready to be adapted.  That infrastructure would roughly boil down to a) sample collection b) sample handling c) sample preparation d) sample analysis e) materials: reagents, etc. Scaling these up from scratch is quite a bit more work than adapting to a new contagion.  A commitment to having that infrastructure would have helped a lot with the current crisis. Right now, the focus is rightfully on health care workers, suspected cases and essential workers.  In terms of preparation though, in...

Who are the rentiers?

American cities need more housing. That is obvious to the YIMBY movement. I've heard some attempts to contest that statement, but in the overall range of discourse, it's rare for those who defend opposing viewpoints to respond to that statement directly. Instead, those discussions experience a topic change, either focusing on personal experiences, homeowner "rights", or an attack on landlords. Part of the reason for that topic change is that contending that there is enough housing in cities has to confront the supply and demand topic, and if you're not going to provide more supply, you have to change demand. That line then leads to somewhat hollow arguments about how people don't "belong" in cities and should be elsewhere. It's hard to make that argument without being oblivious to the individuals who are currently making that choice to live in a city despite the very high housing costs, or who would prefer to if they hadn't been forced out by...